We took the roundabout way to get here, but the top two favorites at Euro 2008 have survived all the way to the final. Germany was the 7-2 chalk at the start of the tournament, with Spain second at 4-1.

The roles will be reversed for Sunday’s championship. Germany had its hands full against Turkey in the semifinals, while Spain cruised past Russia in soggy conditions. It’s not the first sluggish performance by the German 11; as a result, they check in as +140 underdogs. Spain has played beautiful soccer for the most part and deserves its status as –180 faves.

There’s just one fly in the ointment for Spain. David Villa, still leading the Golden Boot race with his four goals, will miss the final after straining a muscle while taking a free kick against Russia. However, the Spaniards played brilliantly without Villa during Thursday’s semifinal, scoring all three of their goals during the second half. Achtung, baby.

The top teams at Euro 2008 are having nightmares. Italy was crushed 3-0 by the Netherlands, France was held to a goalless draw by Romania, and now Germany has lost 2-1 to Croatia.

Holland was the hottest property on the tournament futures market heading into Friday’s tilt with Les Bleus. But Croatia is closing fast with six points in two games, already enough to advance to the quarterfinals. That’s also enough to move the Croats to 8-1 to win the championship; Holland and Germany were tied at 5-1 at press time.

Portugal was upgraded from 9-2 to 4-1 following two impressive victories over Poland and the Czech Republic. The Portuguese have the consensus best player in the world in Cristiano Ronaldo, who scored the winning goal against the Czechs. But they remain the second favorites behind Spain, the new top chalk at 7-2. Spain is a mortal lock, as long as David Villa keeps scoring hat tricks.

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