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MLB Baseball Betting: Weekend Picks

July 11th, 2008

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The weekend slate of MLB games has been mixed up a bit. Teams have shuffled their pitching rosters in order to get their aces an extra start before the All-Star break. Messing up a pitcher’s routine is a great way to submarine his betting value.

Tim Lincecum already got hosed when he had to pitch Tuesday instead of Wednesday and the Giants lost 7-0 to the Mets. He’s got the assignment on Sunday afternoon at Wrigley against Ryan Dempster and the Cubs.

Meanwhile, Dustin McGowan’s rotator cuff injury puts the Blue Jays under the gun this weekend. Brian Tallet has to go into Yankee Stadium Sunday after throwing 17 pitches in relief Thursday. Tough assignment.

We’ve also got Homer Bailey coming up from the minors to pitch Sunday for the Cincinnati Reds in place of Aaron Harang. Bailey has a 4.31 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in 15 starts for AAA-Louisville. His opponents: CC Sabathia and the Brewers.

MLB Awards - Early Predictions

May 23rd, 2008

Cy Young Award

Annual awards are a fixture on the MLB futures market. Odds for the MVP and the Cy Young will be posted later on down the road, but it’s never too early to make an early prediction.

National League

MVP: Chipper Jones, Atlanta. Houston’s Lance Berkman is the most productive player in the majors at 44.7 VORP. But Jones (37.8 VORP) is hitting .410 and has a higher media profile.

Cy Young: Brandon Webb, Arizona. The collapse of the Padres makes it hard for Jake Peavy to collect enough wins, and now he’s on the DL with elbow problems. Webb is already 9-1 with the Snakes with a 2.69 ERA.

American League

MVP: Magglio Ordonez, Detroit. The three hottest hitters in the junior circuit are Josh Hamilton, Kevin Youkilis and Milton Bradley. Writers won’t vote for any of those three.

Cy Young: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston. Matsuzaka (8-0, 2.40 ERA) plays for the team with the best record in the majors at 30-19.

Alex Rodriguez Profile

April 18th, 2008

A-Rod.jpg

Alex Rodriguez is finally getting some slack these days, after going behind the back of agent Scott Boras to sign a contract extension with the New York Yankees. Whatever your opinion of A-Rod the person, A-Rod the baseball player is one of the best who ever lived.

Rodriguez didn’t get the silver spoon treatment. He was born to Dominican parents in the Washington Heights (aka “Crack City”) part of the Big Apple. His family moved back to the Dominican Republic when Rodriguez was four. When he was seven, they moved to Miami. Then his father skipped town.

A-Rod went on to be a high-school phenom in Miami. Easily the top prospect in the game at age 17, he decided against joining the University of Miami Hurricanes and turned pro. The Seattle Mariners chose him first overall in 1993. Since then: 522 home runs, nine Silver Sluggers, three MVP awards and counting.

Betting on Postseason Baseball

September 25th, 2007

The MLB playoffs start in a week, swelling the betting market in the process. The more big-market teams there are, the more money there will be for the taking – especially if the Cubs are in the postseason.

Traditionally minded baseball fans see the tiny 2-1 scores that predominate in the playoffs, and they immediately think “small ball” is the answer to winning the World Series. That mentality got a boost in recent years when the “Moneyball” A’s kept losing, while the Chicago White Sox won the 2005 World Series. But Chicago’s victory was really a product of their pitching. Look at the White Sox now.

With three- and four-man rotations, the quality of starting pitching goes way up in the playoffs. That creates tighter scores, which in turn puts a lot more pressure on middle and short relief. This is where you make your money; the betting public is less savvy when it comes to valuing relievers.



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