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MLB Playoffs: Diamondbacks – Youth rules

October 9th, 2007

The Snakes have a young, no-name batting order that few people outside the Phoenix area would recognize. Justin Upton just turned 20 in August; Chris Young, Stephen Drew and Mark Reynolds were all born in 1983. Credit Arizona management for letting the kids play – look at the late-season collapses of the Dodgers and Mariners for the dangers of sticking with declining veterans.

It isn’t just the baseball establishment that’s guilty of undervaluing youngsters. But don’t scoff at the betting public for the odds in the Cubs-Snakes series: Arizona’s questionable combo of Doug Davis and Livan Hernandez (the oldest pitchers on the staff at 32) held it together and cashed in at +124 in Game 2 and a mighty +184 in Game 3.

MLB Playoffs: Best Bets at the Sportsbooks

October 3rd, 2007

One of my favorite handicapping mantras is that the books are always flush with Cubs money. But the 2007 playoffs might be different – at least for the first week.

In Wednesday’s NLDS opener against Arizona, the Cubs were +125 at press time. That’s not bad for value what looks like a toss-up on paper. Carlos Zambrano and Brandon Webb are the starters; both are excellent, although Webb has the advantage here. Arizona also has the better bullpen. But the Cubs had a .754 team OPS, the Snakes .734. Chicago’s defense is also superior, especially with Orlando Hudson (also Arizona’s top hitter at .817 OPS) out for the season.

In the junior circuit, the Angels are +150 against Boston. In this case, John Lackey has arguably performed better than Josh Beckett. The Red Sox counter with the stronger lineup: .806 OPS to .762 for Los Angeles of Anaheim. The Sox might have a slight edge, but +150? Ridonkulous.



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