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Preseason NFL Odds: San Diego at San Francisco

August 29th, 2008

The NFL exhibition season wraps up late Friday night with three games out West. The San Diego Chargers and the San Francisco 49ers will be at Candlestick; odds had yet to be posted at press time.

The Niners (2-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) will have wide receivers Bryant Johnson and Ashley Lelie available for the first time this preseason. They’re expected to play the first half, although new starting quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan will only join them briefly at the start of the game. Lelie is coming off a torn calf muscle and needs to play well just to get a job with the Niners.

San Diego (2-1 SU and ATS) is playing on short rest after beating the visiting Seahawks 18-17 Monday night. Seattle was a 5.5-point puppy. Friday will be the first game since the preseason opener for Chargers DT Jamal Williams; without him, San Diego’s starting unit has had some issues on defense.

NFL Football Odds: Teams to Watch

August 22nd, 2008

NFL Football

We’re halfway into the NFL preseason, and we haven’t seen much from the first-stringers. But we’ve seen a few things of note.

The early signs aren’t good for the Cleveland Browns. Already on the radar as a potentially overvalued team at 25-1 to win the Super Bowl, the Browns first unit was shredded on Monday night in an eventual 37-34 loss to the New York Giants. Worse, five players were injured. Quarterback Derek Anderson (concussion) was among them; he may have hurt his hand, as well.

The Philadelphia Eagles (also 25-1) deserve a look as a potentially undervalued team, but wideout Kevin Curtis suffered a hernia injury that will keep him out for at least the start of the season. That might leave the Kansas City Chiefs (125-1) as the most tempting underdog to follow. The Chiefs have finally cleared out the deadwood after last year’s 4-10 campaign. The Super Bowl is a bit much, but going over six wins isn’t.

Most Valuable NFL Franchises

July 18th, 2008

Dallas Cowboys

As in life, the NFL teams with the most money have a big advantage over the rest of the pack – even with the salary cap. But having money and knowing what to do with it are two different things.

Jerry Jones seems to know what he’s doing. His Dallas Cowboys became the richest franchise in all of pro sports last year, according to Forbes magazine. They moved up from third in the NFL rankings thanks to their new stadium, which will open in 2009. That’s $325 million going from the pockets of Arlington taxpayers into the franchise, bumping its value up to $1.5 billion.

The Washington Redskins used to top the rankings; they’re second now at a mere $1.467 billion. FedExField is only 11 years old, but owner Dan Snyder was reportedly talking to D.C. officials last year about building on top of old RFK Stadium. Maybe someday Snyder will figure out how to turn those profits into a good football team.

NFL Odds to Win the Super Bowl

January 25th, 2008

NFL odds to win the super bowl

One month ago, the New England Patriots beat the New York Giants by three points. So why are the Patriots laying 11.5 points at Super Bowl XLII?

Because they’re that good. Judging the Patriots purely on the merits of their Week 17 performance at Giants Stadium would give you the wrong idea of how capable they really are. Sharp handicappers have long memories (it’s all about sample size) of the Pats starting the season 8-0 ATS.

But the much more recent success of the New York Giants cannot be ignored. They’ve played four outstanding games in a row after a dangerous midseason stretch that threatened to derail their playoff hopes. Eli Manning appears to be following in big brother Peyton’s footsteps after all. Or we could see Bad Eli make a cameo appearance in Glendale on Feb. 3. Then again, even Peyton had his detractors before the Colts won last year’s Super Bowl.

NFL NFC Predictions

January 10th, 2008

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So it’s been established that I’m on the chalk in both the NFC Divisional matchups. I think Seattle will have trouble handling both the Packers (-8) and the weather, while I’m even more confident that the Cowboys (-7.5) will hand the Giants a whuppin’, just like they did twice during the regular season.

Once those preliminaries are out of the way, we’ve got a hell of a contest for the NFC title. Dallas and Green Bay were two of the top five teams in the league this year. When they met in Dallas in Week 13, the ‘Boys won 37-27 as 7-point faves. But that wasn’t a typical performance from Brett Favre – he threw two picks and was knocked out of the game in the second quarter.

I expect we’ll see a similar spread during the NFC championship, and I expect the Cowboys to take advantage of Green Bay’s defense, which is wearing down as the season drags on.

Miami Dolphins: Will Cam Cameron Return as Head Coach?

December 24th, 2007

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Yeah, Miami hired Bill Parcells. But not to coach – at least that’s what the deal is at the moment. Parcells is now the “executive vice-president of football operations,” whatever the hell that is. But unless his title includes a slash and “head coach” with it, he will not be giving the Dolphins what they really need, and what he’s best at. It’s difficult to figure, at this moment, just what will happen in Miami. Will they fire Cameron and hire someone else? Will they fire Cameron and have Parcells take over on the sidelines? Or will they keep Cameron? And when will this all happen? We can’t say, because they don’t know.

Does Cameron deserve to come back next season? I may be out on a limb here, but I’d say yes. Cameron inherited a bad team with a quarterback problem. Yes, Miami lost its first 13 games this season, and yes, several of those were bad losses. But the Dolphins also lost six games by three points. And we can’t say that this team quit on Cameron, and in going 0-13, that’s saying something.

Might Parcells choose to, or get talked into, coaching the Dolphins next season? It’s possible, and it would probably be the best thing for the team. But Cameron at least deserves a second look, if not a second season, at Miami.

Are the New England Patriots Running Out of Luck?

December 13th, 2007

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You’re probably pretty smart. You’re on the Internet, for one; even better, you’re at our website reading this blog. So we can safely assume you don’t think the New England Patriots are “due” to lose as some point this season.

You usually need a few balls to bounce your way in order to stay undefeated this late into the season. But the closest the Patriots have gotten to needing some luck was in Week 13 against Baltimore. Otherwise, the Pats have been steamrolling the league with ruthless efficiency.

The statheads at Football Outsider have pegged New England as the best team ever after Week 14, and by a wide margin over the 1999 Rams. We’re talking about a harmonic convergence of football talent here. You really have to reach to find a weakness – the punt returning could be better. But punting to New England as often as possible won’t win you many football games.

NFL Week 14 Odds: Dallas vs. Detroit

December 6th, 2007

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A month ago, the Detroit Lions were gods. They were 6-2 and well on their way to fulfilling QB Jon Kitna’s 10-win minimum. Detroit can still do it, but at 6-6 it’s going to take a monumental effort against Dallas, the top team in the NFC.

Aside from the New England Patriots, the Cowboys have laid waste to every opponent put in front of them. Dallas is one of the best teams ever assembled; the advanced stats have them on par with the 2004 Eagles at this stage of the season. So having to cover 11 points on the road against the slumping Lions shouldn’t be too daunting.

If you’re looking for fireworks, the total for this matchup was 51.5 points at press time. The over is 9-3 for Dallas and 4-1 in Detroit’s last five games. The Lions’ defense is falling apart at just the right time for Cowboys QB Tony Romo (107.1 passer rating) to swoop in.

Why Peyton Manning and the Colts Will Win the Super Bowl

November 29th, 2007

Indianapolis Colts

What’s this? The Cowboys and Packers in a battle to determine the No. 2 team in the NFL behind New England? I wonder who drew that one up in the marketing room.

The Indianapolis Colts are sitting there at 7-1 on the Super Bowl futures market, just begging to be picked. This is a team that came very, very close to beating the Patriots, even with injuries on offense. Those players are working their way back into the lineup – players like Tony Ugoh, Anthony Gonzalez, and looking toward the playoffs, Marvin Harrison. It seems likely we’ll see the Colts and Pats lock horns again in the AFC Championship.

Naturally, the Pats have proven themselves not only the best team in the NFL over the course of the regular season, but one of the best ever assembled. That doesn’t make them a good bet at 1-4. Wouldn’t you rather take Indy at 28 times the potential earnings?

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots Odds

November 22nd, 2007

Patriots vs Eagles

We’re through the looking glass, people. The Patriots are 23-point favorites Sunday against the visiting Eagles. This is the highest spread, according to ESPN’s Sal Paolantonio, since the Steelers laid 24 points to the Buccaneers back in 1976. Pittsburgh won that game 42-0 in a battle of first against worst.

Philadelphia is hardly the worst team in the league at 5-5 SU and ATS. But bettors have swarmed the Pats like killer bees, bumping the spread in Vegas up from 17 at the open. That’s one hell of a middle opportunity.

Part of the reason for this mammoth spread are the thumb and ankle injuries suffered by Eagles QB Donovan McNabb, who may not play Sunday. The bigger reason is that New England coach Bill Belichick is refusing to bow to football tradition. He’s keeping his first-team unit on the field even in blowout situations. Critics say Belichick is running up the score. Bettors have no problem with that.

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