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Betting on Postseason Baseball

September 25th, 2007

The MLB playoffs start in a week, swelling the betting market in the process. The more big-market teams there are, the more money there will be for the taking – especially if the Cubs are in the postseason.

Traditionally minded baseball fans see the tiny 2-1 scores that predominate in the playoffs, and they immediately think “small ball” is the answer to winning the World Series. That mentality got a boost in recent years when the “Moneyball” A’s kept losing, while the Chicago White Sox won the 2005 World Series. But Chicago’s victory was really a product of their pitching. Look at the White Sox now.

With three- and four-man rotations, the quality of starting pitching goes way up in the playoffs. That creates tighter scores, which in turn puts a lot more pressure on middle and short relief. This is where you make your money; the betting public is less savvy when it comes to valuing relievers.

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