This just in: The North Carolina Tar Heels are pretty good at basketball. They’re so good, they’re getting 8-5 odds to come out of the Final Four and win the NCAA men’s national championship.

That’s quite a compliment. There are no slouches among the three other teams in Saturday’s semifinal; UNC’s competition is the Kansas Jayhawks (3-1 to win the title), the Memphis Tigers (27-10) and the UCLA Bruins (16-5). All No. 1 seeds, just like North Carolina. Are the Bruins only half as good as the Tar Heels?

North Carolina has been convincingly dominant over four straight opponents. None of the other teams can claim that. But four games is also a very small sample size, and all four of these clubs have put together a tremendous season up to now. Finding that balance between long- and short-term performance analysis is part of the art of handicapping, just like any other investment.