One month ago, the New England Patriots beat the New York Giants by three points. So why are the Patriots laying 11.5 points at Super Bowl XLII?

Because they’re that good. Judging the Patriots purely on the merits of their Week 17 performance at Giants Stadium would give you the wrong idea of how capable they really are. Sharp handicappers have long memories (it’s all about sample size) of the Pats starting the season 8-0 ATS.

But the much more recent success of the New York Giants cannot be ignored. They’ve played four outstanding games in a row after a dangerous midseason stretch that threatened to derail their playoff hopes. Eli Manning appears to be following in big brother Peyton’s footsteps after all. Or we could see Bad Eli make a cameo appearance in Glendale on Feb. 3. Then again, even Peyton had his detractors before the Colts won last year’s Super Bowl.