The San Diego Chargers (+14) might be in over their heads against the New England Patriots. But there is every reason to believe the Bolts can keep this AFC Championship close, maybe even pull off the upset. Reason No. 1: their surprise victory over the Indianapolis Colts.

San Diego has developed a lot since starting the season at 1-3 SU and ATS (including an embarrassing 38-14 loss to New England as 3.5-point road dogs). This is the first year of the Norv Turner regime, and he’s got a fresh set of assistants starting with defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell. While Rivers has developed under Turner’s guidance, Cottrell has tweaked his vanilla 3-4 defense, making it more aggressive to take advantage of the talent he has at linebacker.

I think the Chargers should be getting something a lot closer to that Week 2 spread. San Diego will harangue Tom Brady and bag the cash.